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Quote



 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   1259 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016



   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z



   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IA...SRN

   WI...NRN IL...NRN AND CNTRL IND...SW LOWER MI AND WCNTRL OH...



   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS

   VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS

   OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA...



   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS

   VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...OH VALLEY...SRN AND CNTRL

   APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MID-ATLANTIC OUTSIDE OF THE ENHANCED RISK

   AREA...



   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO

   UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...OH AND TN VALLEYS...SRN

   AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MID-ATLANTIC OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT

   RISK AREA...



   ...SUMMARY...

   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME GREATER THAN 70 MILES PER

   HOUR ALONG WITH TORNADOES AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS

   AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN

   WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN

   TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO.  A WIND DAMAGE THREAT

   MAY AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL

   APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.



   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...

   AN IMPRESSIVE AND UNSEASONABLE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL

   MOVE ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD

   OF THE SYSTEM...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS

   THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.

   THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE EVENT

   ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY

   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.



   AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETUP FROM NRN IL INTO

   CNTRL IND DURING THE DAY WITH A WNW-ESE ORIENTED SHARP GRADIENT OF

   INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. A BAND OF CONVECTION MAY BE

   ONGOING NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM IA SEWD

   INTO CNTRL IL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS CONVECTION IS

   FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND MAY HAVE AN

   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR

   DEVELOPS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...AN

   ASSOCIATED 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM

   THE WEST. THE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE

   ASCENT AND STRENGTHEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY

   MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. 



   SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO FIRST INITIATE IN NE IA TO

   THE NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH

   LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE

   POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT A RATHER QUICK TRANSITION

   TO LINEAR MODE SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO

   MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO NCNTRL IND WHERE A BOWING

   LINEAR MCS APPEARS LIKELY. MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE CAMS AND

   DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS BUT ARE SUPPORTING

   THIS IDEA THAT A FAST-MOVING LINEAR MCS WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS THE

   MODERATE RISK AREA. I AM FAVORING A MORE EAST SOUTHEAST MCS TRACK

   MUCH LIKE THE WRF-NSSL4...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ALONG THE EXPECTED

   GRADIENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM NEAR DUBUQUE IA ACROSS SRN

   PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METRO TO BETWEEN SOUTH BEND AND INDIANAPOLIS

   IND TO NEAR COLUMBUS OH. A SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH A CLUSTER

   OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS ABOVE

   65 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE APEX OF THE BOWING MCS. THE

   ELONGATED INSTABILITY CORRIDOR PARALLEL TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW

   COMBINED WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL

   MAKE A DERECHO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE AFTERNOON TO THE

   MID EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE UPPER OH

   VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS

   AND MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

 

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