A Paper Proposal

[Brookesy]

I have generated a bit of an argument for a paper proposal / economy analysis.

Edit: See posts below - Rando has kindly formatted this post correctly. A true wizard and friend of the trees.

Unfortunately, a lot of the work I put into it did not survive posting in this format so I had to make due and post it here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTr86lHGBJo_r-k6Pu8gHY3CqPZzSgoVReC4aJpI5FGcaBl0NAtpM3VcPBWCX_Ms2LemjAaDckMJOXp/pub

Some of the formatting isn't jiving correctly, I apologize for that. But it is beyond my simple mind to solve.

Edited April 1 by Brookesy
Format

[Fitz]

10/10

[Bherky]

 

[王 rando 王]

A Paper Proposal

 

 

“Dear Governor,
I would like to extend my appreciation for your most recent order of lumber supplies from Brookesy Logging Co.  I can only assume they are dedicated to your most recent housing and building maintenance initiatives that passed so well during your election campaign. I know that you are a large supporter of the “hard-working-by-the-book-law-abiding-citizens” here in Altis, and I come to you with a suggestion. Legalize paper. Hear me out, if you were able to legalize paper production, your citizens could benefit to fill a current supply gap in the market. Overall, this would improve quality of life for your citizens by contributing to the development of a strong and free market economy. Take my business for example, if paper was legalized my business would be able to diversify our current business portfolio and expand operations into new legal avenues. In turn, this will help stabilize the current disparity and crime plaguing the lands under your governance. For your consideration.”

                                    -Brookesy

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.      Concept

2.      Analysis

3.      Diversifying the Paper Game: Proposed Pricing

4.      Proposed Paper Mill Location

5.      Proposed Lumberjack Talents and Progression

6.      Conclusion

 

1.      Concept

The lumber gameplay loop has existed literally forever, and has seen some changes since its early days. Long gone are the days of selling a few hours worth of work for an easy and legal 500k. Nowadays, we can legally use Tempests to harvest trees automatically (the days of a backpack and axe are over, the days of the Tempest has begun), there are now several types of wood to cut and ultimately mill. Which of course, can then be combined with each other or with other sectors of raw materials (animal skins) to produce furniture at the carpenter. But something is missing. And that missing element is what I am here to discuss today; that is, the role of paper in the Asylum economy and its impact on gameplay styles.

Ultimately, the bottom line proposal is this:

1)      Allow paper to be a controlled commodity (like Weed) that can be legalized or illegalized by the currently elected Governor.

2)      Allow paper to be a transferable yet diverse gateway commodity that can be processed via a new processing facility – i.e.: Paper Mill. You might be asking, so what does this mean?

Essentially, when timber is processed into planks, the next processing option should allow users to process two different types of paper, one for legal applications and the other for potential illegal applications. This advanced processing would be done at a (Paper Mill) zone or NPC. And finally, we need to then make these two basic commodities transferable. This means that a player would be able to take rolling papers, go to a paper mill, and then restructure them into officer paper OR vice versa. Therefore, paper now becomes a diverse yet transferable commodity that would give it a very intriguing and valuable status as an advanced commodity. The unique placeholder in the market is a result of the fact that it has potential to either be a legal or illegal (gateway) commodity, this means that paper has the flexibility to explore both legal and illegal markets at a relatively low barrier to entry (i.e.: it is transferable).

 3)      Expand on Talent Tree for lumber oriented industry

So what would this look like? To better answer that question, we first need to look at the current state of paper and its role in the Altis market.

2.      Analysis

So what is the current state of paper? To be clear, and this goes mostly without saying, paper does not exist; however, rolling papers do but they are currently illegal – this is of course due to its uses in tobacco products which are also illegal. From the Asylum wiki: “the APD has determined that it is illegal for civilians to be in possession of tobacco, rolling paper, cigarettes, or cigars.” Due to the harmful nature of tobacco, rolling papers as tobacco paraphernalia has also been outlawed. And in this paper, I will argue that this is unjust and instead should be controlled by the governor as a dynamic commodity like weed.

At the current time of writing, rolling papers sell anywhere between approx. $200 to $300 per rolling paper on the Asylum Exchange. It is noted that listing at $650 per rolling paper did not sell – this will be important later on in this discussion.

Rolling papers currently hold a unique commodity position as it currently is one of the three resources required for crafting cigars – which is one of, if not the most, lucrative commodities to sell. Let’s examine a less profitable commodity in which rolling papers are also required, cigarettes. Cigarettes are currently sold for 1,250 per item. In order to craft cigarettes, you need 1 x dried tobacco and 1 x rolling paper. This requires a processing stream of gathering raw tobacco and then drying it, and also cutting down pine trees and milling them into planks, and then milling again into rolling paper. The last step is to combine a 1:1 ratio of rolling paper to dried tobacco at a tobacco factory. Finally, it can be sold for $1,250 at a drug dealer vendor. Let’s break this down further.

After analyzing this processing stream, we notice that to obtain 1 x rolling paper, we need to gather 1 x pine tree, and then process that pine tree into 1 x pine planks, and then into 1 x rolling papers. In summation, this is a three-step total process (1 x gathering plus 2 x processing). Similarly, in order to obtain 1 x dried tobacco, we need to first gather 1 x raw tobacco, take it to a tobacco factory, and then process it again into 1 x dried tobacco. In summation, this is a two-step total process (1 x gathering plus 1 x processing). Finally, the rolling papers and dried tobacco are combined to make cigarettes. Let’s take a bit deeper of a look.

In terms strictly of just resources required, the total sale price would be split 50/50 for each rolling papers and dried tobacco. However, if we then factor in the processing steps we can get the weighted cost per commodity. To explain, the total sell price is demonstrated by the expression: 1250 = 3RP + 2DT. Where, 3RP is the three step process for rolling papers and 2DT is the two step process for dried tobacco. Simplified for just the total number of steps regardless of commodity we get: 1250 = 5S. where S, is the number of steps. Therefore, per step we get 1250 / 5 = S. Where S then equals 250. We can then sub this value back in for each step for rolling papers and dried tobacco to get: 1250 = 3(250) + 2(250). This demonstrates that for the amount of work (or time) that an individual puts in to process rolling papers it would be equivalent to 3(250) = 750, whereas, dried tobacco would only account for 2(250) = 500. So why is it that rolling papers are sold for much less – it was noted earlier that papers would not sell even at $650 on the exchange – which would still turn a profit for buyers based on the above model? And if you’ve made it this far in my argument – you’ve probably been yelling at your monitor saying “BUT IT DOESN’T ACCOUNT FOR RISK” for the past several minutes. So why are rolling papers selling for three times less than their theoretical value?

The value of rolling papers is simply devalued due to the fact that it does not need to be processed in a KOS zone (reduced risk). Some may also argue that you can process rolling papers at the same processing station (lumber mill) and do not need to take it to be further processed elsewhere; therefore degrading the difficulty of the task. However, this reasoning is negated in this specific experiment due to the fact that raw tobacco only needs to be processed once; thus saving time. If anything, this just demonstrates that processing rolling papers takes longer and should therefore increase the cost as it increases the work (time) to make the rolling papers. In addition to this, rolling papers are then illegal and are being held on for longer than dried tobacco, as rolling papers have to be held for additional processing cycles of pine timber to pine planks and then to paper. Whereas, dried tobacco is only held for the additional cycles of raw tobacco to dried tobacco – one whole cycle less than rolling papers! So wouldn’t this mean that rolling papers should be even more valuable since you are holding a higher risk of being caught? The current state of the market says – no, rolling papers are worth three times less. However, the real answer is dependent on risk and risk management. Before we go down that road let’s make some conclusions that have been highlighted thus far.

Based on the discussion this far, it is clear that the sell price of a commodity is dependent on the amount of risk the activities required to make the product have, as well as the amount of work (time) that is put in to processing a commodity. Of note, the amount of time required to process a commodity should directly influence elevating levels of risk proportionality – however, in the case of holding illegal rolling papers this has been demonstrated to not be the case. The biggest factor that governs the price of a commodity is whether or not it is processed or gathered in a KOS zone. If the commodity, is processed AND gathered in a KOS zone, then the sell price of the commodity increases even more. But why? The answer is high volatility and the expectation/perception of increased losses. If you get robbed or killed in one of these areas – then you have forfeited all the progress you have made up to this point – high risk, high reward.

Interestingly, rolling papers are not perceived as high risk despite their illegal status. Legality aside, it is true that rolling papers are not processed in a KOS area – which has ultimately been demonstrated to be the primary factor behind whether or not a commodity has more value. Moreover, rolling papers are priced similarly on the exchange to phosphorus and/or hydrogen sulfate (meth resources) – which are legal. This demonstrates that the legality of the item is not as important as the risk to reward ratio of the commodity. Importantly, this demonstrates that by making rolling papers legal, there would be no impact to the market due to the already existing perception of the risk involved in processing rolling papers. And by legalization of rolling papers, it would allow law abiding citizens to tap into more lucrative trade deals on the exchange.

3.      Diversifying the Paper Game: Proposed Pricing

Now that we have a strong understanding of the factors behind what makes a commodity valuable. How can we apply this knowledge to make the lumber industry more competitive or at the very least a more attractive means to earning an income?

The answer that I will argue is that the lumber game loop needs to diversify processing products into rolling papers and a new product: office paper. In general, this is the current processing stream (red denotes illegal activity):

This is my proposed game play loop:

The proposal would be to add a new commodity – office paper. It would also include the addition of making rolling paper a dynamic resource like weed. By “dynamic” I mean that it can then be voted on by the people/Governor as to whether or not it should be legalized or illegalized. Importantly, rolling paper regardless of legality can be transferred into office paper for a processing cycle or vice versa – this action would take place at a Paper Mill NPC. I am suggesting that the Paper Mill NPC reside in a dynamic KOS zone that, depending on the legal status of rolling papers, can either be a KOS zone (if rolling paper is illegal) or not a KOS zone (if rolling paper is legal).

The advantage to this dynamic KOS zone is that players can vote on whether or not they want rolling papers to be a high risk illegal activity; therefore, increasing the value of rolling papers. Or a legal low risk commodity; therefore, decreasing the price of rolling papers. Importantly, we need to ensure that there is a check/balance to this, such that when rolling papers legalize it does not overly degrade the value of rolling papers like the current market. The way to prevent this is by controlling the supply, and therefore the demand of rolling papers by setting a floor price on office paper. The intent here is to set a minimum price on office paper, such that if the price of rolling papers dips below the office paper price due to legalization of rolling papers (increased supply), then the paper market will swing towards lumber players having a large incentive to convert their existing stock of rolling papers to office paper (or simply an incentive to produce more office paper) – as they would earn more to sell directly to a commodity trader vice trading rolling papers on the market to other players. The result will be a reduced supply of rolling papers (since all supply is being made into office paper), therefore raising the price of rolling papers – although notably still less than illegal rolling papers (due to less risk during periods of legalization). Additionally, when rolling papers are illegal, the price for rolling papers will increase above the office paper floor price due to a larger inherited risk. An anecdotal effect of this system is that it will create an interesting paper market where players could potentially hoard rolling papers in hopes that the upcoming Governor election will make rolling papers illegal – and therefore, drive the price up. Let’s now consider a fair starting price for this new office paper commodity.

Office paper is a commodity which requires a total three step process, 1 x gathering pine trees, 1 x processing into lumber planks, and then finally transferring to the Paper Mill for a further 1 x processing. Importantly, this means that office paper and rolling paper will not be able to be made at the lumber mill station – which slightly increases the difficulty and risk (risk of being robbed in transit) of making both types of paper. Thus, increasing prices. For a fair price, let's look at a similar existing commodity to office paper.

Medicinal marijuana is similar to the proposed processing stream of office paper because it requires 1 x gathering step and 1 x processing step, and has a similar level of risk when legalized to office paper.  Note that this differs from office papers 1 x gathering step and 2 x processing step – however, through my lumber talent proposition, we can remove the need for planks, and can directly create office paper – more on this later – but for now we assume that this talent is taken and therefore, medicinal marijuana has a similar gathering/processing stream to office paper. Moreover, it is important to acknowledge that without this talent, the processing stream for office paper would take longer for an individual to create office paper due to the extra processing cycle (timber – planks – office paper) and therefore would only cause the price to increase due to increased work.

 

The current price for selling medicinal marijuana is $290. Therefore, if we take into account the amount of work required to process office paper as near equivalent to medicinal marijuana, we can estimate a fair market value around $290 per office paper. The effect of this, is that it will raise the currently undervalued rolling papers to at least $291 or more – depending on the legality factor. If it is legal, it will be around $291 (on par with office paper). If it is illegal, prices will increase as set by the player base dependent on perceived risk factors (such as: player count, gang activity, current offerings on market, etc) during the processing stream. Ultimately, office paper will allow a “baseline” for paper commodities that will make the role of the Governor/player base voting more meaningful. Additionally, office paper will provide an avenue of price balancing for times of legal / illegal pricings with regards to the rolling paper market.

4.      Proposed Paper Mill Locations

In order to facilitate a fair and accessible location the following area has been analyzed and proves to be a promising future location for a Paper Mill. This location is suitable as it is within a reasonable reach of the lumber mill which is aligned with similar travel distances for other commodities. It is also suitable, as it will increase traffic flow within this region of the map to create and foster a more relevant and “lived-in” world:

The Paper Mill is located just outside the Eastern side of the town of Galati (Grid reference: 105190).

 

 

 

5.      Lumberjack Talents and Progression

In order to facilitate ways to make the lumber game loop on par with other professions within the game, it is feasible to introduce a talent system that allows players the unique opportunity to specialize and increase rewards associated with the lumber industry. I propose the following talents:

Lumberjack Talents

Base: Unlocks the Lumberjack Talent Tree

Tier 1: Handsaw – reduce the time it takes to chop down trees with an axe by 10%

Tier 2: Timber Hauler – reduce the virtual storage size of any timber by 25% while stored in the Tempest Ammo, HEMTT Box, or Zamarak (Covered). Note, this does not apply to storage in houses or containers.

Tier 3: Forest Industrialist – decrease the processing time of any timber into their respective plank by 20%

Tier 4: Pulp Specialist – process pine timber directly into office paper, no need for pine planks!

These talents are self-explanatory, feel free to comment questions below. In short, these talents would offer unique ways to explore the lumber trade!

6.      Conclusion

In finality, it has been demonstrated that rolling papers currently hold a very unique position in Altis’ market. This commodity can be leveraged to provide new and exciting revivification to an otherwise out dated logging and milling industry. These leverages include: the dynamic legalization / illegalization of rolling papers vis-av-vis Governor rule, a Paper Mill zone that can be either a KOS zone or not depending on legality status of rolling papers, and lastly, a revisitation of Lumber/Milling talent trees. Overall, these concepts would provide a much more meaningful impact both financially and gameplay wise. 

“Did you know that 100% of paper products in Altis come from lumber? Find out more! Contact Brookesy Logging Co.

Here at Brookesy Logging Co. we work hard to meet all your lumber needs, we offer all products and a delivery service scheduled at your convenience. Give us a call today. It’s as easy as one, two, tree.”

Edited April 1 by 王 rando 王
yea idk why homie numbered everything as 1.

[Brookesy]

Thanks Rando! You are a wizard! I could not figure out how to make it look like that!

[王 rando 王]

3 hours ago, Brookesy said:

Thanks Rando! You are a wizard! I could not figure out how to make it look like that!

refer to me by my official title

Grand Wizard.

[Chris Peacock]

Buddy. You couldn’t pay me to read all that

[Brookesy]

11 hours ago, 王 rando 王 said:

refer to me by my official title

Grand Wizard.

Yes Grand Wizard, as you wish

[GravL]

i hope you put this much effort in in school

holy fuck

[Knight05]

100/10 for presentation but that's crazy for rolling paper. I will summarize it for everyone else with TLDR:

Keep rolling paper illegal. Make actual office paper legal and sellable at commodity. Have a different facility from lumber for making paper.

[王 rando 王]

1 hour ago, Knight05 said:

100/10 for presentation but that's crazy for rolling paper. I will summarize it for everyone else with TLDR:

Keep rolling paper illegal. Make actual office paper legal and sellable at commodity. Have a different facility from lumber for making paper.

Thanks, I formatted it but couldn’t actually be asked to read it.

[IFKNLOVEHONEY]

IFKNLOVEHONEY approves this message.

[Brookesy]

12 hours ago, Knight05 said:

100/10 for presentation but that's crazy for rolling paper. I will summarize it for everyone else with TLDR:

Keep rolling paper illegal. Make actual office paper legal and sellable at commodity. Have a different facility from lumber for making paper.

Close... you got the main ideas... Under 1. Concept I explained the bottom line or main ideas, I touched up that section for all of you with bird-like attention spans and included it below: 
 

"Ultimately, the bottom line proposal is this:

1)      Allow paper to be a controlled commodity (like Weed) that can be legalized or illegalized by the currently elected Governor.

2)      Allow rolling papers to be a transferable yet diverse gateway commodity that can be processed via a new processing facility – i.e.: Paper Mill. And introduce a new officer paper commodity

3)      Expand on Talent Tree for lumber oriented industry"

 

6 hours ago, IFKNLOVEHONEY said:

IFKNLOVEHONEY approves this message.

I just want you to know that I used your honey post as inspiration ❤️ you do excellent work sir

[MoLu.]

The AI is hacking the server